Although many countries on a global scale have achieved partial success in combating new types of coronavirus and achieved a noticeable decrease in the number of cases, some countries are still dealing with increasing cases. There is a situation that even the countries that think they control the epidemic are afraid at this stage. There is possible second wave hazard.
What is the Second Wave?
The term “wave” that we all hear often refers to the number of active cases rising and falling during an epidemic. However, the term wave has no official definition. Others may refer to any rise as the second wave, but in some cases, it may be instantaneous rises within the first wave. Basically, in order to speak of a second wave, a continuous and steady increase in the number of active cases should be observed. At this stage, although the second wave probability is intense in the epidemic, there is still uncertainty at this point. As a matter of fact, the SARS-CoV-2 is still wandering around and is not less contagious or less fatal than before.
What Triggers the Second Wave?
Quarantines and deadlocks around the world have caused major problems. These include the blow to the economy, cuts in education, and dangerous developments, especially in terms of mental health. However, deadlocks made it possible to achieve partial success in terms of control of the epidemic. For this reason, the measures taken should be lifted gradually and in a controlled manner, and contact tracking skills should be maximized.
When Will the Second Wave be?
A significant number of experts expect a second wave to occur in August or September. Of course, let us emphasize that this is an expectation, it may be earlier or later, but it may not be at all.
On the other hand, R0 = 3 was defined at the beginning of the outbreak. The R-Value, which we can explain as the main contagiousness and reproductive coefficient of a disease, is a numerical way to evaluate the transmission ability of a disease briefly. It basically shows us how many more people a virus-infected can infect on average.
However, our behavior has changed and people have adapted to social withdrawal rules. Therefore, the R-value is not expected to rise to these levels again.